President Barack Obama faces new warning signs in a once-promising Southern state and typically Democratic-voting Midwestern states roughly five months before the election even as he benefits nationally from encouraging economic news.
Obama’s new worries about North Carolina and Wisconsin offer opportunities for Republican Mitt Romney, who must peel off states Obama won in 2008 if he’s to cobble together the 270 electoral votes needed to oust the incumbent in November.
Iowa, which kicked off the campaign in January, is now expected to be tight to the finish, while New Mexico, thought early to be pivotal, seems to be drifting into Democratic territory.
If the election were today, Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney’s 206, according to an Associated Press analysis of polls, ad spending and key developments in states, along with interviews with more than a dozen Republican and Democratic strategists both inside and outside of the two campaigns.
Seven states, offering a combined 85 electoral votes, are viewed as too close to give either candidate a meaningful advantage: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
“As of today, the advantage still lies with the president, but there is a long and hard road ahead in this election,” said Tad Devine, who was a top strategist to Democratic presidential candidates Al Gore and John Kerry but isn’t directly involved in this year’s race.
If Romney wins all the states Republican John McCain carried in 2008 plus North Carolina, as trends today suggest he would, he would still need 64 electoral votes to hit the magic number. That would require him to win a majority of the states that are up for grabs.
Obama, on the other hand, faces the costly and labor-intensive challenge of defending those states in a much different environment than the one he enjoyed four years ago.
Big-spending, pro-Romney political committees are certain to be a factor, and already are running heavy levels of television ads in states where Obama is vulnerable, such as Florida.
But Obama’s early spending – more than $30 million on advertising before Memorial Day – and new glimmers of economic hope across the battleground states demonstrate the size of Romney’s challenge.
The race is expected to be close, and the past six weeks have been volatile.
North Carolina is a case in point.
Obama announced his support for gay marriage on May 9, one day after 60 percent of North Carolina voters approved a constitutional ban. “That issue definitely hurts him down there,” said veteran Republican presidential campaign strategist Charlie Black, a top aide to 2008 nominee McCain. Black’s not directly involved in this year’s race but is an informal adviser to Romney.
North Carolina’s high African American and young voter population, keys to Obama’s 2008 wins there, give him the edge, aides say. And the president so far has spent heavily there, $2.7 million on television, according to reports provided to the AP.
But Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue gave Republicans an opening by not seeking re-election this year. And union leaders, a key Democratic constituency, are upset that this summer’s Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., is being held in a state where union rights are weak.
In Wisconsin, embattled Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s improving fortunes as a contentious June 5 recall election approaches could alter that state’s landscape. Walker, who sparked mass protests by signing anti-union legislation last year, has pulled narrowly ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in recent polls.